[Diplomacy] Maldives Coup: Reasons, Implications, Nasheed, Prologue to GMR Issue explained

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  1. Why is Maldives important for India?
  2. Brief History of Maldives
  3. Operation Cactus 1988
  4. Entry of Mohd.Nasheed, 2004
  5. Economic Problems
  6. Tourism and Islam
  7. Coup against Nasheed, 2012
  8. Pro-Mohd.Nasheed version of Coup-story
  9. Anti-Nasheed version of Coup-Story
  10. India’s Stand on Maldives crisis
    1. India did bad
    2. India did good
  11. India-Maldives cooperation
  12. Male vs Mali coup
  13. Mock Questions

Why is Maldives important for India?

  • Maldives is an island country of about 1,200 small coral islands, roughly 600km away from Indian mainland.
  • Because of its geographical location, Maldives forms a vital cog in the geopolitics of the Indian Ocean.

Against China

  • Almost all the cargo vessels have to pass through this region. Therefore, During Indo-China war, If you want to control the supply lines in Indian Ocean, you must have a base in the Maldives.
  • Apart from Maldives, Diego Garcia and Seychelles are other important strategic locations in the Western Indian Ocean.
  • India needs strong allies in the neighborhood to ensure the Indian Ocean does not become a Chinese lake in the long run.
  • For this, cooperation from Maldives=essential.

Against Pakistan

  • Maldives could serve as a potential launch pad for terrorists targeting India.
  • There are intel reports that Lashkar-e-Toiba is trying to setup base in Maldives and to use it as weapons storehouse. From Maldives they aim to transport men and weapons to Kerala, and from there to rest of India.
  • because Post-26/11, Indian Navy and coast-guard has tightened the security around coastal areas of Mumbai, Gulf of Cambay etc. so very hard to transport men and material directly from those areas.

map maldives

Brief History of Maldives

  • For long, Maldives was run by local Muslim kings.
  • The British government had promised them military protection and non-interference in local administration in exchange for an annual tribute (cash).
  • So, prior to independence, Maldives was similar to an Indian princely state.
  • In the mid-60s, Britishers left. Maldives became a republic (i.e. rule of people and not rule of kings.)
  • In late 70s, Maumoon Abdul Gayoom became the President of Maldives.
  • He continued as President for 30-years,  winning six consecutive elections without any opposition!
  • so you can imagine that he regularly used police and military to crush down opposition parties. He also gave all the Government jobs to his loyal supporters.
  • Parliament of Maldives= known as People’s Majlis.
  • Official language= Dhivehi

Operation Cactus 1988

  • In 1988, a group of Maldivian businessmen and political leaders tried to seize power, with the help of mercenaries.
  • But Indian Government sent troops to restor order, and helped Maumoon Gayoom continue as President.
  • This is known as Operation Cactus.

Entry of Mohd.Nasheed, 2004

  • From 2004 onwards, Mohamed Nasheed started protests against the mis-rule of Gayoom.
  • Finally in 2008, Gayoom gave up power and Mohd. Nasheed became the first democratically elected President of Maldives.
  • Once he held a cabinet meeting underwater to highlight the dangers of rising sea levels.

Economic Problems

  • GDP of Maldives= 2 billion dollars.
  • Almost 70% of Maldives’ GDP comes from Tourism, airport and allied activities.
  • 2004: Tsunami came and badly affected tourism.
  • 2007 onwards: Bad economic situation in USA  and Europe = less tourists coming for vacation.

Tourism

  • Maldives has population around 3 lakh and almost all of them are Sunni Muslims.
  • Islam is the state religion of Maldives. Open Practice of any other religion is forbidden.
  • Government of Maldives follows a special type of tourism policy.
  • The islands are separated into “uninhabited islands” vs “inhabited islands (of local Muslim population.)”
  • The tourist resorts are opened in the uninhabited islands.
  • Tourists are allowed to consume alcohol, loiter around in bikini etc. in these uninhabited resort islands.
  • But ^these activities are banned in the inhabited islands, to preserve the local Islamic traditions.
  • So ground reality = a foreign tourist will come to Male Airport, tour operator will take him to the resort-islands via speed boats or chartered planes.
  • Recently, President Nasheed was planning to open new tourist resorts on inhabited islands, because of two reasons
  1. To Increase competition among resort owners.
  2. To weaken the powerful local businessmen/political lobby associated with the Tourism business.
  3. To Increase tax collection.

His opposition parties tried to portray this as an un-Islamic act of Nasheed and fuel public anger.
Players in Maldives Coup

Coup against Nasheed, 2012

  • After becoming President, Mohd.Nasheed had ordered judicial inquires against corruption and scandals done by Ex-President Gayoom and his gangsters.
  • In January 2012, President Nasheed ordered arrest of chief justice of the Maldives on charges that Chief Justice was blocking cases against Ex-President Gayoom and his gangsters.
  • Opposition parties took this opportunity to conduct protests and riots against Nasheed.
  • Policemen also supported the rioters.
  • Ultimately Nasheed resigned in Feb 2012 and handed over power to his Vice President Mohd.Waheed.
  • Thus Waheed became the President of Maldives. He has promised to hold “Free and fair” election somewhere in early 2013.

There are two version of what happened behind the curtains.

Pro-Mohd.Nasheed version of Maldives coup-story

Tourist Resort Owners plotted everything!

  • Maldives is a tourism economy but after global recession post 2007, the tourists were declining.
  • That lead to food inflation and unemployment.
  • So, Nasheed decided to impose more taxes on rich tourist resort owners and use that cash to run MNREGAs.
  • These rich businessmen got angry and they financed the protests to get rid of Nasheed.

Waheed plotted the whole damn thing!

  • The radical Islamic groups of Maldives, do not like the reformist and modern outlook of Nasheed.
  • So they helped Vice-President Waheed to grab the power, to create a fundamentalist Islamist government
  • The new President Waheed said he’d include Islamic parties in his new cabinet, because they are “part of our society and can’t be ignored”.
  • It proves that Vice President Waheed was hand in glove with these radical elements and he secreted plotted all these protests, to become President.

Pakistan plotted everything!

  • During the Anti-Nasheed protests, many historical Buddhist and Hindu relics at the Maldives’ National Museum were destroyed.
  • This suggest that protests were handiwork of radical Muslim outfits who aim to ‘Talibanize’ Maldives.
  • Earlier President Nasheed used to send lists to Indian intelligence agencies, about Maldivian students studying in India, who were suspected radicals.
  • Based in these intelligence inputs, India found out that many fundamentalist Maldivian groups were sending terror recruits in the garb of students to India, who would later smuggle themselves into Pakistan for training.
  • Nasheed had also agreed to far-reaching defense arrangements with India after 26/11.
  • Thus radical Islamists of Maldives and ISI stirred up the protests against him.

China plotted everything!

  • The top police and military officers of Maldives are in pockets of China.
  • And Since Nasheed is very close to Indian political establishment, China secretly plotted this coup to get rid of him (part of strings of pearls theory).
  • The police and security forces joined with anti-government protesters under the guise of defending Islam.
  • And they warned Nasheed “you must resign, else we’ll shoot your supporters on sight.” (or at least that’s what Nasheed told the media.)

Anti-Nasheed version of Coup-Story

No Taliban angle

  • The Sunni Muslims of Maldives have liberal and modern outlook.
  • Nasheed is intentionally spreading of the stories of possible “Talibanization”, to make USA and India feel worried and support him instead of the opposition parties.
  • At best, this whole event can be termed as power struggle between Nasheed and Waheed.
  • Both of them have tried to use religion for their individual power ambitions. (Nasheed making stories of Talibanization to win support of India and USA  while Waheed seeking support of radical groups in the name of tourist resorts etc.)
  • Maldives is a tourism economy and it has been badly affected by Global Economic recession. There is widespread unemployment and huge food inflation.
  • But President Nasheed has been unable to tackle this Issues and hence public protests against his rule. To suggest that everything is handiwork of China, Pakistan, ISI and radicals would be an over-simplification.

Nasheed=Autocrat

  • Holding Public office and leading street demonstrations require different hats. (That’s why Jholachhap NGOs cannot be allowed to run countries.)
  • Nasheed was good at holding dharnaa-pradarshan against Gayoom, but after becoming the President, Nasheed did not grow in office and his style was quite un-presidential and autocratic.
  • He did not try to have smooth consultation with opposition parties. He hasn’t spoken with leader of opposition for 6 months.
  • He was overconfident that India would support him in any coup/political crisis just like we did to Gayoom in Operation Cactus, 1988.
  • Therefore he was careless about the brewing opposition.

Nasheed= Drunk with power

  • In 2010, he ordered police to arrest the Deputy speaker of parliament.
  • But Police did not follow his order (because Supreme court had termed Nasheed’s order illegal).
  • Then Nasheed used army to arrest that Deputy Speaker. Hence there is lot of bitterness between (judiciary+police) vs Nasheed since 2010.
  • After Nasheed resigned from Presidency, his supporters destroyed police stations, court houses throughout the island. So he is not different from his opponents who use violence to achieve their goals.

India’s Stand on Maldives Coup

After the Male Coup, At first Indian Government’s stand was…

  1. We’ll treat the matter as an internal issue of Maldives, to be sorted out by themselves.
  2. We recognize the newly sworn in President Waheed as the Head of Maldives.
  3. We are prepared to work with whoever is legitimately in power Maldives.

But then, Pro-Nasheed supporters also started protests and rioting. Nasheed has blamed India for not supporting him during critical time and wrongly diagnosing the problem. So India sent a special envoy to assess the ground realities.

Experts have ‘divided’ opinion on India’s approach to Maldivian coup.

Opinion #1: India did bad

  • Prevention was better than cure. India should have quietly used its goodwill with the politicians in Maldives, to avert the crisis when it was slowly building up.
  • Ex-President Nasheed had been sensitive to India’s commercial and strategic interests, has taken India’s relations with Maldives to new heights.
  • Ex-President Nasheed stands for democracy, religious moderation and human rights that are strongly cherished by India.
  • Ex-President Nasheed, enjoys huge popular support even after being ousted by Waheed.
  • Therefore, by siding with Waheed’s gang, India has lost considerable goodwill and isolated itself in the eyes of Maldivian people.
  • India should have actively supported Nasheed during the crisis just like it did to Gayoom in Operation Cactus.
  • But India supported Waheed, because in recent years, Indian foreign policymaking has become hostage to woolly-headed thinking about peace, multi-lateralism, cooperation, aversion to even slightest risk.
  • The results have been disastrous.
  • Waheed’s Government ended Indian Company GMR’s airport contract because of Chinese lobbying. (GMR issue will be discussed in a separate article later.)
  • It proves that India has totally failed to meet the Maldivian challenge.
  • This will hurt our vital national interests in Indian Ocean and embolden our rivals (China, Pak) in the region.

Opinion #2: India did good

  • India has done right thing by not repeating Operation Cactus and not actively intervening in the Maldivian crisis. Reasons are following
  1. Maldivian political space is bitterly polarised, and Constitutional institutions like the judiciary and election commission have lost their credibility.
  2. Therefore, if India had used some strong arm-tactics (sending military etc) to keep Nasheed in power, even then, the whole crisis would have repeated again in a few months.
  3. Democracies are notoriously unstable and messy in the beginning. They require patience and commitment.
  4. So Maldives democracy should be allowed to evolve by itself, without interference from external powers, including India.

India-Maldives cooperation

Over the years, India has signed many agreements with Maldives under which

  1. Foreign trawlers from Indonesia etc. do massive fishing in Maldivian waters, illegally.
  2. Maldives lacks a powerful navy to combat them and hence seeks India’s cooperation.
  3. India will set up a network of radars across the Maldives’ islands. These radars will be linked to the Indian coastal command. This will help us keep track of movements of pirates, illegal fishing trawlers etc in the region.
  4. Establishing an air force station to carry surveillance flights.
  5. building a military hospital in Male, police training academy
  6. giving admission to Maldivian students in Indian univ.
  7. India also bought 100 million dollar worth bonds of Maldivian Government to give them financial help.
  8. + bilateral intelligence sharing, ‘capacity building, cooperation in climate change, sustainable Development (desi-liquor) and other usual diplomatic stuff.

Male vs Mali coup

Please donot confuse these two coups.

Male Coup Mali Coup
Geography Male is the capital city of Maldives Mali is a landlocked country in  Northwestern Africa.
Happened in Feb 2012 March 2012
Resigned President Nasheed Prime Minister Diarra.

Mock Questions

Q1. Which of the following is incorrectly matched?

  1. Israel
Knesset
  1. Japan
Diet
  1. Indonesia
Majlis
  1. Maldives
Majlis
  1. Only 3
  2. Only 1 and 2
  3. Only 2 and 3
  4. None

Q2. Which of the following is/are an Island Nation?

  1. Macau
  2. Maldives
  3. Malta
  4. Ireland
  1. Only 1 and 2
  2. Only 2 and 3
  3. Only 2, 3 and 4
  4. All of them

Q3. Which of the following is correct?

  1. Atoll is a coral island
  2. Archipelago is a group of islands
  1. Only 1
  2. Only 2
  3. Both
  4. None

Q4. which of the following is incorrect

  1. Official language of Bhutan is Dzongkha
  2. Official language of Maldives is Dhivehi
  1. Only 1
  2. Only 2
  3. Both
  4. None

Q5. Incorrect match

Operation Location
  1. Polo
Hyderabad
  1. Vijay
Goa, Daman, Diu
  1. Meghdoot
Siachen
  1. Black Tornedo
Sri-Lanka

Mains

  1. Critically evaluate India’s response to Maldivian political crisis and its future implications. (20m)
  2. Discuss the strategic importance of Maldives for India (15m)
  3. Write a note on India-Maldives Defense and maritime cooperation. (10m)

Interview

  1. India has done the right thing by not repeating Operation Cactus in Maldives.” Do you agree with this statement? Yes/No. Justify your stand.
  2. Apart from Maldives, which other countries in South East Asia have faced coups in Past?
  3. Can you recall any example of coups from Ancient or Medieval Indian History?
  4. Why were coups successful in Pakistan?
  5. Reasons why coups donot happen in India?
  6. For a coup to be successful, what are the pre-requisites?

For the entire Archieve of diplomacy related articles, visit Mrunal.org/diplomacy

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111 Comments on “[Diplomacy] Maldives Coup: Reasons, Implications, Nasheed, Prologue to GMR Issue explained”

  1. plz soon write on GMR issue.thanks a lot for help.

  2. Jabardast!
    waiting for GMR issue

  3. thank you Mrunal ji for the exhaustive article. helps us lot.

  4. 1.) a
    2.) b
    3.) c
    4.) d
    5.) d

  5. i think sittwe port is developed by india…

    1. Yes, since 2010 India is developing it.

  6. 1. c
    2. c
    3. c
    4. d
    5. d

  7. super IR article its superb effort done by u Mrunal. Same clarity i got during my lectures in Vajiram and RAvi taken by Abhilash sir and Ravindran sir.
    U should open institute in New Delhi v require teacher like you who can give us article in lang which a layman understands.

    Thank you

    1. Dear Pukar Mehta,

      Although I wish Mrunal both commercial as well as general well being but your suggestion that he should also open a shop in Delhi and restrict his amazing analyzing skills to benefit only money paying junta is just crude. It is because of people like Mrunal and his ability to bust myth of coaching that I didn’t join any coaching class. But hey, as they say, if you are good at something, don’t do it for free :). I am just saying.

      Thanks

    2. Don’t you realize it is not all about you there are other who can’t afford expensive coaching like you !

      1. There is a concept called Over Justification effect, when an intrinsically motivated child is explicitly rewarded for his achievements, it has a negative effect on him, the child’s future intrinsic motivation decreases!

        Therefore never pay someone who is ready to volunteer, and never pay a child who is self motivated to do a task.

  8. just one word….awesome!

  9. I guess these are the correct answers

    1) a
    2) d
    3) c
    4) c
    5) d

    Please confirm..

    Thanks Mrunal ..for the best work as always..

    1. 4-d…..he is askng incorrect…both r language of respective countries….

  10. 1. d
    2. c
    3. c
    4. c
    5. d

    1. fourth IS D CORRECT
      4. D

  11. 1.a
    2.c
    3.c
    4.d
    5.b and d are incorrectly matched

  12. me thanks yew very muchs

  13. 1-a
    2-c
    3-c
    4-d
    5-d

  14. Sir,
    A Salute!!!! for your Outstanding Service!! We are greatly Committed for it.

  15. your work is simply outstanding.Hats off

  16. fantastic article sir :) .. hats off :) … now waiting for GMR article :) :)

  17. 1.d
    2.c
    3.c
    4.c
    5.c

  18. sorry… the answer indicated in the earlier reply was wrong.
    1.d
    2.c
    3.c
    4.c
    5.d

  19. mrunal sir , can you please give us some insight on the situation of egypt .

  20. 1-A
    2-C
    3-C
    4-D
    5- B and D both.
    Operation Vijay is related to Pakistan war of 1961 as well as Kargil and Black Tornado is that of Mumbai attacks 2008.

    1. Hmm.. 5th would be D only as 1961’s operation was to free Goa Daman Diu from Portuguese.
      1971 Pakistan War had name of Operation Chenghiz Khan , I guess.

  21. Although I have always enjoyed this forum but i have come to notice that the writer has a strong anti China tinge in his works. China has every right to protect its own interests just as India has every right to protect its interests. India cannot claim the entire Indian ocean for itself. Since 80% of China energy supply comes through the Indian Ocean they do have a legitimate right to protect their interests. Its not like China will start acting like US who invades countries just because it feels like inorder to protect its interests, be it strategic or political. India and China have always been good neighbors and it was only because of the 1962 Sino-India conflict which soured the relations. Moreover the conflict was mostly to do with India’s forward policy at the disputed borders but its sad to see that Indians today have been completely indoctrinated regarding the conflict putting the blame squarely on the Chinese. Aspirants should read frontline as well as the numerous independent research on the Sino-China conflict to dispell the myth that China was the back stabber in that unfortunate war. No wonder India still hasn’t released the official report on the conflict even after 50 years while at the same time China has already declassified it.

    1. I understand that you have been reading a lot on “50 years after 1962 war” type articles in frontline, Hindu and Indian express recently, Hence the immaturity in your answer but it is Good that you are able to see the flip side of the coin. Future depends on peace and not on war. It becomes inevitable to look forward towards bonhomie.

      1. @ XYZ: Being a sovereign country,India has every right to protect its interest ,further the history in itself a proof that china is not trustworthy The overall geopolitical scene at present is not conducive to india interests therefore it is quite imperative to see over anarchic influence of neighbor countries like china with a pragmatic approach.

        1. I wouldn’t say that China is an anarchic state. Democracy does not work for every country. The type of political system in a country also depends on the cultural ethos of those countries. And moreover if India has the right to protect its interests, even China has the same sovereign right to do the same thing. Ofcourse we require a pragmatic approach when it comes to international relationships, but it should be done without prejudice, especially with a country like China. Tibet’s govt-in-exile operates in India which deeply concerns the Chinese state. What would be India’s reaction reaction if China starts giving a political platform to the Naga insurgents, the Manipuri insurgents, Kashmiris, naxals, etc???
          Maybe we ought to ponder on such issues.

          1. I appreciate your rational views,but beg to differ on a few arguments. Partho has already given answer to Tibet argument. Well china is already giving a favor to east insurgents if not directly and with regard prejudice to china is important keeping in mind recent boil over in east china sea and south china sea which clearly shows china’s interest (e.g over natural gas or oil fields )are not limited to strategic ones and it directly impinge upon other country’s rights (more correctly collective rights) by bringing about huge asymmetries in resource sharing .No surprise if china claims area in Indian ocean in future.

          2. I agree India has different ‘ethos’ than china ( I respect Chinese culture a lot)but at international level democracy seems to be a valid option (giving voice to smaller nations and therefore i said china anarchic ) further would not it be a mistake to ignore china role in deeply polarizing world (and it gets more relevance if that guy happens to be your neighbor) specially if it involves your own (India ) interests both strategic and economic

          3. I appreciate your concerns that these things should be solved through negotiations peacefully and i agree with that.awaiting your comments for a healthy discussion (plz bear in mind i am not personally against china but discussion on this issue is going so well (thanks to u) with beautiful arguments that i can’t resist taking a stand)

          4. i m glad to see d response n partho n nirmal could i have ur emails so that we can move ahead with this plan ??

        2. @nirmal, what constitutes a democracy? Is it the universal suffrage only that we have adopted since independence or is it true empowerment of people.? If we look from this angle then china is more democratized than India , coz local and provincial administrations in China are much powerful than our panchayats! We cannot reduce the status of a govt. to anarchic just because it doesn’t have a universal suffrage.

          1. Bro you are absolutely right democracy indeed means social,economic and political empowerment .I agree too that we are still a political democratic country (universal suffrage)not economically and socially democratic but one should not consider this situation in vacuum ,the situation in India is far more complex ,India being more diverse socially and economically.China is not as diverse as India.By the way i am saying china ‘anarchic’ in different context.The crux of my argument is that china is acting more like a Archean by suppressing voices of minor nations which too have collective interests.

      2. pointing out other immaturity shows your own immaturity !

        1. @ partho: pointing out other immaturity shows your own immaturity !

          1. Thanks for POINTING out my immaturity! ;)

      3. Agree/////////// hindu,frontline,I.EX……..

      4. Thank you Partho for pointing out my “immaturity” as you put it. Its a sad fact that people and especially aspirants like yourself and several others fail to see that maybe India is not always pious as it presents itself nor is India always correct in every action it undertakes, be it domestic or international. Moreover history is always distorted and thus it is not always prudent to just accept one version of any history. The fact is that I have always respected Indian history and its historians but when it came to the 1962 war, it was almost too loop sided. Maybe you should search for some International blogs where topics on International affairs are rich, varied and quite authentic. Civil service aspirants like us should always try to critically view every problem from all angles. We should stop being chauvinistic because there are enough semi-educated Indians who will surely make up for that. And I’m all for peace between India and China, that’s why I wrote what I wrote. In India the media, books by defense intellectuals, every tom, dick and harry seem to blame China and view it as an adversary which may have a very bad precedent in the future. Indians should view China as a healthy competitor and not as a reason for all the ills happening to India and Indians. Moreover you didn’t actually give me a counter argument to my views but anyways cheers!!!Sorry for my immaturity bro.

        1. Well, My purpose solved! I was looking for a more elaborate description from your side to understand how deeply have you analysed the situation. And the “Immaturity” trigger worked! I completely agree with you and your views, i was just playing devils advocate to start this whole discussion. No hard feelings please. ;)

          Here, even tagore had the same view
          http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/rabindranath-tagores-vision-of-india-and-china/article1095523.ece

          Let me know if you need more “International level articles on India – china”. I too have done my own research, and reached a similar conclusion as yours.

          But one flaw in your argument is , We can’t compare buddhist monks with maoists and insurgents! You can instead compare the respective interests in south china sea and indian ocean.
          Hope you take this as a constructive criticism from a fellow aspirant to another.
          Cheers!

          1. Well I must say your psychologist mambo jambo worked on me. Its nice to see a voice of reason in a sea of irrationality.
            But i stand by my statement that India should not support the Tibetan govt-in-exile. Comparing the Buddhist monks and the Indian insurgents is justified because we have to take into consideration the context. The context in which the Tibetans enjoy wide support by those countries which have an axe to grind with China abrogates their need to take arms. Whereas say in India, if we take the case of the nagas, we find that they declared their independence a day before India’s independence and even submitted the declaration of independence to UN. Even though there was initial support by International communities in the initial phase but the support died down because there was no incentive for nations to support such a movement of a small ethnic minority necessitating the continuation of violence against the state because frankly without it, a huge country like India would never give a damn.
            I would really love to elaborate more but i do not have the patience nor the desire to explain such complex issues out here. Hope this gives you an impetus to know more about insurgencies in India, not only from India’s eyes but also from the insurgents’, the people in conflict areas as well as the international communities. This will indeed help you to understand India’s polity better.
            Anyways Adios Amigo..Till the next relevant issue bring us to the same drawing board again.

        2. And my another motive to write that comment was to test a theory in psychology, in the comment i had praised you for seeing the flip side of the coin as well as called you immature, Well it has been found that people see negatives more often than the positives in life! It is not me who is saying that, psychologists have done research on that & i was just testing the results.

          And i accept my clandestine motives where not correct. Sorry about that.

          1. gud one!

        3. China can’t be viewed as healthy competitor because
          1.Currency manipulation,dumping goods, counterfeiting pharma+drugs+jinxing indian investment abroad(Economic)
          2.Dangerous collaboration with Pak(Nukes)+upgrading infra in PoK +claiming Arunachal+Cyber security+Massive River diversion.(Security)
          3.Vetoing India’s UN SC mem.+Encircling India+Virtually no progress on border talks(Political)
          4.We are not alone of china arm twisting(S.E Asia,Japan , S.Korea, Australia)+US Pivot Policy

          What else do you want…………get real brother

          1. XYZ you gonna reply or should i do the honours?

          2. 5.China Already supports Naxals+N East insurgency(by proxy and here lies it’s trick)-through (low cost)Pakistan and Bangladesh(Small arms trade-Weapons+hand granade made in China), insurgency bases.We dont give Nepal-Bangla transit for the same reason.
            6.India was always open to negotiations with its people(while china was always ready to repress)and infact it is the truth that many regions in india enjoy autonomy(federal constitution has space rewards those who engage in peaceful talks)
            7.Pakistan+Bangla+Myanmmar+China=Huge Military-Industrial complex right next to India(rather around India)

            @xyz stop testing your home cooked unempirical hypothesis, yew seem to have a lot of undirected energy.

          3. @Losers of the world.
            1) China utilizes a crawling peg which even though set by the Central bank of China allows it to fluctuate based on market demand and supply, moreover this will eventually lead to a free market currency exchange. Moreover India uses dirty float which is not exactly the completely free floating currency system because even the central bank intervenes in the event of rapid appreciation of depreciation of the nations currency.
            Counterfeiting pharma??…Come on..India is the leading Generic drugs manufacturing powerhouse. And moreover there is WTO to take care of any Intellectual Property rights dispute.
            Jinxing India’s investment abroad??..Well since the world is now a global market, so if the Chinese companies gives a better deal to the customers compared to Indian companies, then naturally they are gonna lose.
            2)Collaboration with Pakistan is in China’s own strategic interests. Its not China’s fault that India does not have good relations with all her neighbors especially the South Asian countries(even though Pakistan might become a real pain in the ass for China in future). Claiming arunachal is purely political as they will never get it just as India will never get back Aksai Chin. Cyber security is the responsibility of every country to strengthen its own capabilities(China got hacked recently by Pakistani hackers).
            Actual river diversions in the tsangpo has not happened so far but India can take China to an international arbitration if that happens as there are International laws for such issues.
            3)Frankly if you think China is the only one opposing India’s entry to the Security council, then you are living in a fool’s paradise. None of the present security council members would want to admit more members. They would prefer status quo as it provides them with massive political clout regarding international issues through their Veto powers. Regarding Border talks, there are reports which suggest that China wants to settle its boundary disputes with India but the problem arises because of the nature of Political environment in India(Coalition party system) which cant come to terms regarding passing ordinary bills, let alone ratify such “nationalistic” issues such as border issues(and that too with China- India’s greatest enemy according to some of our great political leaders and Aam admi).
            4)China is a rising power and it will twist the arms of other nations when it comes to their own strategic interests just like India will do it to any other weaker nation if it gets the chance(And it has rightly done so in the past).
            US Pivot-This is basically a strategy to contain asian powers from challenging the hegemony of the “great” United states of America. US has military bases all over the world, from Europe, Africa, America(North,South,Central), Asia(West asia,Japan, Korea, diago garcia,etc) and now is focusing mostly on Asia. So i don’t think its China challenging US, infact its the other way round.
            Get real bro!!
            P.S: Please do give your time to the “not so popular” views sometimes.

          4. @partho…Will you please try to answer “losers of the world unite” from point no 5 to 7. I have already wrote a BIG LONG reply for his first four points.
            it might be a little hard to answer if you don’t take a totally neutral view. Otherwise i might have to reply with another BIG LONG exercise which i feel will totally go to waste because the guy has already made up his mind so he won’t even listen to my arguments. I can feel the strong vibe from his questionnaire.

          5. Lolz!! Well i did not think this will turn so nasty!! Peace my friends.! instead of discussing only military strategy we must also discuss, Human development, Technological exchanges, Education, Trade relations, and many more other things.

            There are misconceptions in both the countries. But can be resolved only through dialogue and P2P. Armed conflict is no option at all, hence there is no use discussing it. Let China create a string of pearls(though many times China has said that the ports are for their own interests and not to threaten anyone), US concentrate on the Pivot(though US has said many times that asia pacific region was neglected by US and hence the new found vigour), the only option for India is dialogue. And friends it is good to see that there has been a lot of visits from both sides, we are moving in the right direction.

            Hence lets get real! There is not going to be any Sino – India war:P

            What psychology says: In Cave experiments, Sherif showed that superordinate goals (goals so large that it requires more than one group to achieve the goal) reduced conflict significantly more effectively than other strategies.
            So the superordinate goal now is fighting climate change, Terrorism, World peace etc. Relax!

          6. XYZ and Partho, while you are absolutely correct in your arguments, however I do agree with Losers of the world.
            Yes we must not be chauvinistic and should not be adversarial but since we are aiming to be a world power we need to stop playing second fiddle to China. For that we have things to learn from China, as you have mentioned (eco, infra, etc etc), + a good Indo-China relation is in our interests not only for economic reasons alone; at the same time we must be on our guard as any competitors in any field already are.

          7. @XYX+partho
            counter reply
            1.Dirty float has limitations-even US Fed finding hard time -QE’s not working, while for a country china’s economic size this pegging thing is like retreat and counter attack.
            2.Chinese companies DO NOT gives a better deal to the customers, it gives better deals to foreign autocrats and dictators(Many African countries,Myanmar,N.Korea,Sri Lanka,Pakistan)…Customers and citizens can go to hell…Chinese companies abroad insist for both skilled and unskilled Chinese labour…empowering the Chinese (unethical)way+China firms counterfeited Life saving drugs in Africa…Nigeria if I recollect correctly…they can always find new ways eating into our GDP.
            3.China’s opposition to India in matters high security is consistent in UNSC,NSG, while it is ready to shoot down international law out of the way to help Pakistan. +Claiming Arunachal wow! really builds huge goodwill(what about not disturbing settled [email protected] for border talks)+River diversion is a long term plan(Chinese understanding that south China has too much natural resources which must be brought to northern and eastern part…china always keep saying it is not doing anything…but an article In yojana said feasibility studies(done) and pilot projects underway. when it happens it will be fiat accompli.
            4.The same coalition passed nuclear deal with US and cleared FDI in retail. China doesn’t want to settle the border issue with India…in spite of we making concessions to China on Tibet(now we talk of Tibetan autonomy only) because solving border issue will attract stability for foreign investors.
            5.China’s peaceful rise is very unpeaceful…with economic power it has arm twisted whereas we with our economic rise and past mistakes have not arm twisted anyone(after 1991) because we are responsible powers now.
            6.US Pivot is due to vulnerability of Chinese neighbors.They need a balancer in SE Asia and East Asia.US(to some extent India) would be foolish not to have taken the call.

            Fresh point
            8. Internationally Chinese Statistics are not accepted as reliable…Chinese(like a drunkard) use it for support rather than illumination.

        4. Mr. XYZ,

          No, India is not always pious, but neither is China. Talking about becoming pragmatic and at the same time considering China “healthy competitor” (idealistic), cancel each other. We all know how many cases are there against China at WTO, China pegs its currency that’s why USA cries foul about China. Anyways, yes I give you that we should not consider China adversary all the time and learn from it wherever it helps us to improve the lives of the people of India. I believe the most of the negative aura around China in India is creation of our own speculative media and to some extent the Chinese state sponsored media which doesn’t shy away from making strong and sometime jingoistic arguments. Also not every tom, dick and harry is adverse to the Sino-India relation, for example you. As Partho has pointed out Tagore was foremost intellectual who vehemently rejected chauvinistic discourse to IR. One more recent scholar is Amartya Sen who in his work “Argumentative Indian” has brought out historic links between India and China.

          You are right that being Civil Service aspirant we should always try to critically view every problem from all angles but we can’t be ambivalent. You have to take a stand. You can’t see China from Pakistani eyes, you are an Indian and Indian interests are paramount for us but yes, we must not allow irrationality in our approach.

          Cheers :) (I think there is nothing wrong in cheering)

          1. Taking a stand wali baat pe thoko taali! ;)

          2. @Mrunal, this was the kind of discussion in comments i was talking about. ;)

          3. @ Sujanian, Good initiative!

            I would rather say we all must share questions from different sources! Different test series, Self made questions and then discuss on them, rather than sharing just information. We can work the modalities for the same.

            & instead of using social network, we can think of some other platform. a closed blog would be more effective.

        5. @xyz…though I am also against china policies towards india but the way u answered (questioned asked by looser of the world unite)is wonderful…

        6. well friend i appreciate ur optimistic vision towards india and china relation but i have my own opinion regarding indo-china relations n i want to put forth them
          if u ‘ll observe the geographic location of tibet Plateau then u’ll find that this area has tremendous potential for generating energy especially hydro power n prospectively both the countries india n china r energy starving countries as well as two most populated econmies of world n my this argument is well manifested by relentless energy scouting by both the countries in various arab ,african n central asian countries . energy crisis is d thing which is prompting china to be a hard state n usurp energy rich isalnds n region in south china sea n inviting hostility from its neighbor ,but as we all know that fundamental rule of foreign policy is to prioritize ur own interests n then settle other issue n china is working well as per this thumb rule. but if china ‘ll have tibet as its integral part without any hue n cry dn soon it ‘ll use the hydro power potential of this region to quench its thirst that means making dams on brhmputra n guys nw all hell broke loose !! if this thing happens then Our north east region which is watered by b.putra ‘ll be at the mercy of these tiny eyed n short stature ppl n keeping in mind our current relations it’ll become a strategic weapon for china to puppet india in any strained situation; n our dreams of exploiting hydro power potential of NE ‘ll be shattered . so i think india giving asylum to tibetean is not abad idea its a well calculative move .

          1. “tiny eyed n short stature ppl”….
            Well my fellow aspirant such racist comments show the quality of Civil Service aspirants in India.
            Since you mention North East, i would like to inform you that the people of NE are of Mongoloid ethnicity i.e people with “tiny eyed n short stature ppl” as you put it. It is such racist comments that the people of NE has not been fully integrated into “mainland” India.
            As for your other concerns i would not like to reiterate my points. Everyone has their own opinions and if you think you are right then I’m sure you are.
            Moreover it has been found that short stature has more to do with NUTRITION and has nothing to do with ethnicity. India’s average height is lower than that of China’s as well as most of the more developed East Asian countries. Go figure that out.

          2. oh ! i din mean to offend u n i dun see any offence if i call them “tiny eyed n short stature” tat’s hw they r identified n one must take proud in one’s identity ;u r making an issue of trivial allusion used by me to address chinese .nw i’ld like to qoute a dialog from a random movie name of which i m not able to recall at d moment,”in dat movie a guy brazenly declared,” he is a bihari n he is proud of it” . i hope now u understand what i mean !!
            n ur pro china attitude is a matter of grave concern for me because fundamental principle of any foreign policy is- take care of ur interests harmoniously n rest everything ‘ll take care of itself . n china is a naughty country and his notoriety is explicit in south east region . tat’s the reason vietnaam which was once ally of china is not less that a foe of china because of china’s hard stance n cow tongue theory (wherever he feels that he can find oil n energy he claim that area as his own territory).n u an IAS aspirant or i take no pride in calling u as my fellow aspirant because u r more concerned in guarding china rather than making a china containment policy for india so that in future we could stall chinese hegemony in asian region ;i have lot to talk about chinese because i understandbtheir pursuit very well n its future impact .
            string of pearls , dn railway track in pak ; dn badkshan corridor ,fostering N E terrorist groups south china sea conflict .how do u construe all these events ??? don’t u see them as china’s india containment policy???.
            plz educate me if u have any cognizance in this regard so that i can have a bonhomous outlook towards china
            P.S :i din mean to turn backs bt i dun want to recommit “HINDI -CHEENI BHAI BHAI MISTAKE “.

          3. @ sujanian blood :- xyz is too mature to understand this kind of language coz as you mentioned rightly he is good at trivializing. Infact if you see above I have given a through rebuttal to his chest thumping word artistry, claims that have no factual basis or grand imaginations(equating nagas with tibetians). In IR realism rules otherwise you let your country down.

          4. Well friends!! Discussion was wonderful. I think we will need more time to integrate, ‘Wishful thinking & Strategic Thinking’. Your inputs are highly appreciated. I hope we will have more such discussions in future.

            P.s Lets not get personal next time.

          5. As you wish me lord

          6. @losers of the world unite.
            Thank you for your “excellent” rebuttal. Although i appreciate your reply I felt that it asked more questions rather than provide a legitimate rebuttal.
            As for the nagas it is clear that you haven’t read much of their history(although its not required from the exam point of view), maybe from Wikipedia or maybe from the Institute South Asian conflicts. Their demands started when Simon commission came to India. While the whole of India were protesting against them, the nagas welcomed them and gave a memorandum imploring them not to include naga areas which were under the “excluded area” of british territory into the erstwhile Indian union. Besides declaring their independence from India on the 14th of August 1947 and sending their declaration to the UN they also carried out a plebiscite as well as drafted their own constitution. Indian forces entered the excluded naga territory in the 1950s and AFPSA was enacted to clear out the “misguided” nagas. Nagaland was under the “Ministry of External Affairs” till 1973 as per the cease-fire agreement signed on 1961. I would love to elaborate more but due to paucity of time i cannot. I do hope that this will entice you to learn more about our country and understand my underlying belief why i view the naga problem and tibetan problem in the same light. And also to introspect as to why one third of our Armed forces i.e the Indian army excluding the paramilitary and the Central police forces, are engaged in internal security and why as a democratic country India’s human rights record is appalling.

          7. @sujanian blood.
            Thank you for your reply. Stating a racist comment like that as trivial simply shows why Indians are not liked in most parts of the world. I don’t believe that calling a person bihari, Tamil, Telugu, mizo, manipuri,etc is offensive but calling them a black/brown short,smelly,curry and hairy or calling them slant eyes is actually offensive.
            As regards to your queries, i have already stated my views and would not like to provide a a detailed answer to every query because frankly i do not have the luxury of time. I’m not here to impose my views but just to share them. I belief your concerns are legitimate and it would have been nice if we got a chance to seat to contemplate and consummate on our views. As for your statement that I have a pro-China view is unfounded, its because i’m an Indian who would love to see our nation grow that I am propagating for a strong India China relationship.
            P.S: I’m all for India-Chini bhai bhai.

          8. @ xyz hindi chini bhai bhai (well ! there is one child policy in china so they dun understand d sanctity of this relationship (bhai):-)jokes apart!!
            n i revoke my adjective (short eyed n tiny stature) as u consider it RACIAL ADJECTIVE to which i m n’t convinced much but as racism is what i m strictly against so i can’t carry it any more at this platform.n i think that it’s quite an protracted discussion about china n almost every nook and corner has been travelled by all my comrades .AS we see that this is quite a controversial topic so a common conclusion is a rarity n imposing your opinion upon others is again against democratic framework .so i feel d need of switching to some other topic of interest on which we could present our vies n carry out n informative discussions !! n i hav a suggestion comrades!
            as u all know that teamworks has led to miraculous results , n every person has his unique persepective towards various issues n while reading ur views i noticed that all u fellas r quite sincere with ur prep so why not have an additive effect of our efforts n why n’t to use marks zukrberg’s excellent innovation(FB)as a common platform for discussing mandatory topics ,if u fellas r in dn i request
            1.XYZ
            2.PARTO
            3.LOSSER OF WORLD UNITE
            4. NIRMAL
            what do u think fellas !!!

          9. @ xyz hindi chini bhai bhai (well ! there is one child policy in china so they dun understand d sanctity of this relationship (bhai):-)jokes apart!!
            n i revoke my adjective (short eyed n tiny stature) as u consider it RACIAL ADJECTIVE to which i m n’t convinced much but as racism is what i m strictly against so i can’t carry it any more at this platform.n i think that it’s quite an protracted discussion about china n almost every nook and corner has been travelled by all my comrades .AS we see that this is quite a controversial topic so a common conclusion is a rarity n imposing your opinion upon others is again against democratic framework .so i feel d need of switching to some other topic of interest on which we could present our vies n carry out n informative discussions !! n i hav a suggestion comrades!
            as u all know that teamwork has led to miraculous results , n every person has his unique persepective towards various issues n while reading ur views i noticed that all u fellas r quite sincere with ur prep so why not have an additive effect of our efforts n why n’t to use marks zukrberg’s excellent innovation(FB)as a common platform for discussing mandatory topics ,if u fellas r in dn i request
            1.XYZ
            2.PARTO
            3.LOSSER OF WORLD UNITE
            4. NIRMAL
            what do u think fellas !!!

          10. Why Tibet different from Naga

            1.Little is known about the early history of what is now Nagaland.Naga insurgency is symptomatic(coincidental with Independence, they were not alone in their demand)while it is an established fact that Tibet was a near free country which strong cultural linkages(Buddhism=Non violence) with India.
            2.Nagas themselves were internally divided(factions) over separation from India whereas Tibetians were and are united in their quest to be free.
            3.Naga territory is 70 times smaller than Tibet(a good point for trivialization, but territorial size does speak about the gravity of the problem)
            4.Chinese definition of Tibet(occupied through invasion) has changed with its militarily rise(Now it includes Arunachal) which are signs of modern imperialism while India has been a victim of Imperialism(Aksi Chin).
            4.Army is in Nagaland(and not in South India) because of a border state China might get funny ideas there.AFPSA in due time will be diluted(democratic power).

          11. I must congratulate you for the kind of Initiative you have taken .I am completely in agreement with you,we must direct our energy with cooperation towards more enlightened discussion .This will provide us to think about problem from every angle.I hope we will continue with these kind of discussions.I am with you in this initiative.

    2. @xyz,
      -It is not India but China that is following aggressive forward policy at disputed borders.

  22. Thnk ou sir…..
    Sir can you explain Nepal Logjam???

  23. sir please must write about the nepal’s issue and role of india in this regard. Thanks

  24. 1.a
    2.c
    3.c
    4.d
    5.d

  25. i think its 1-a 2-d 3-c 4-d 5-d..

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