[Nuclear Diplomacy] India’s No first use” Nuclear weapon policy vs Pak’s conditional sign to NPT

SubscribeDiplomacy93 Comments

Neostencil IAS Courses
  1. D1: India’s No First Use (NFU) Police for Nuke weapons
  2. D2: Pakistan: Conditional NPT signature

D1: No First USE policy for nuke weapons

Topic is in news because BJP Manifesto called for updating the NFU policy.
Q1.  Discuss in brief the “No first use” Nuclear weapon policy of India, and examine the needs for reform in it. (200 words)

What is NFU?

  • In 1998, After Pokharan II, PM Vajpayee declared India’s No-first use (NFU) policy to pacify the world leaders.
  • As per NFU, India will retaliate with nuclear strike, IF the aggressors use nuclear, chemical or biological weapons against us.

YES to reforms?

  1. Our conventional military might alone is sufficient to obliterate the Pakistan in future conflicts. Therefore, Pakistan began developing small sized, portable Tactical Nuclear Weapons (TNW) such as “Nasr” missile system.
  2. Given political instability in Pakistan, if these TNW are stolen or “outsourced” to terrorists, we cannot wait for them to “First” nuke attack before applying NFU.
  3. In case of a full scale war with China, even if they use no nuclear weapons, our ground forces will be overwhelmed. In such situation, sticking to NFU will be illogical.

NO to reforms?

  1. Paki nuke establishment cannot survive the first round from India. So, if we revoke NFU, Pakistan will get more scared and tempted to adopt “First Nuclear Use” policy.
  2. 2013: Paki Army doctrine updated & their “homegrown militancy” was listed as “biggest threat” to national security. If India’s NFU changes, they’ll revert the doctrine.
  3. NFU helped India get civil nuclear technology, despite being a non-member of NSG and non-signatory of NTPT.
  4. 2014: Nuclear Security Summit at Hague, PM Singh called for an “International No-first Use doctrine”. If we now change NFU, it will contradict the India’s good image of peace-loving and responsible nuclear power.
  5. FUD will send negative signal to China, with whom we need to sort out border issues and improve trade-ties.
  6. First use doctrine (FUD) requires 24/7 preparedness and carries risk of unauthorised nuclear use via miscommunication.

~280 words but you can skip a few points to “fit” this in 200 words.

Timeline: India-Pakistan Nuclear capability
1968 Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT). Non signatory= India, Israel, Pakistan, South Sudan and North Korea.
1974 Pokharan-I
1998 Pokharan IIVajpayee promised Parliament that “India would not be the first to use nuclear weapons.”
1999 National Security Adviser (NSA) Brajesh Mishra drafted NFU policy.
2003 Vajpayee Government  formally adopts India’s nuclear doctrine

  1. We’ll not threaten to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear states (=negative security assurance),
  2. We’ll launch a massive nuke retaliation if weapons of mass destruction are used against India or its armed forces.
  3. (Later amended) that even in case of chemical and biological attack, we’ll use nuclear retaliation.
2005 Indo US nuclear deal.
2008 NSG ends the ban on nuclear trade with India. Permits supply of any nuclear equipment and material for civilian use.
  1. India has stockpile of ~100 warheads
  2. We’ve sufficient weapon-grade plutonium for 100+ warheads. Beyond that we need more plutonium from fast breeder reactor at Kalpakkam.
  3. India’s nuclear doctrine calls for all 3 spheres- air, water and land attack capabilities.

D2: Pakistan: Conditional NPT signature

Why in news? Because in a recent seminar, Paki Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC) Chairman said “We’re ready to sign NPT.”
Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT)

  • Agreement in force from 1970
  • classifies the countries into two categories
NPT categorization
Nuclear Weapons States Non-Nuclear Weapons States
  • Countries that tested nuke bombs before 1st January 1967.
  • meaning Only P5: U.S., U.K., France, China and the Soviet Union
Everyone else.
They can continue to possess the nuclear weapons for the time being. But ultimately they’ll have to begin disarmament. Promised not to acquire nuclear weapons.

Sequent of Events after NPT

1974 India conducts nuclear test @Pokhran.
1975 Dr. A.Q. Khan steals Uranium technology from Netherlands to Pak.
1975 Group of Nuclear exporter countries met at London, to put export controls on such Non-Nuclear Weapon countries. Otherwise NPT would become meaningless. This gang later transforms into NSG.
1992 Nuclear Supply Group (NSG) releases “dual-use” guideline.

Dual use guideline:

  • IF a given material/technology has “dual use” i.e. in making nuke bomb + in making nuclear reactors for energy…
  • THEN Nuclear supplier country can export / transfer it to another country
  • ONLY IF the recipient country (e.g India) promises not to use it for nuclear explosion OR in unsafe nuke reactors.
  • But still, NSG approval necessary before such export/transfer begins.

In other words, by “dual use guideline”, NSG aims to prevent spread of sensitive nuke technology to problematic countries such as N.Korea and Pakistan.

Sequence of Events
1998 May second week India again tests nuclear bombs in Pokhran
1998 May last week Pakistan PM Sharif also tests nuclear bombs to show we are also in the race.
2005 Indo US nuclear deal signed.
2008 NSG gave permission to India to buy nuclear material and technology for its civilian energy program. Despite the fact that India hasn’t signed NPT.
  • After NSG waiver, one by one, France, UK, Canada, S.Korea, Nambia, Argentina et al signed nuclear treaties with India, promising to supply fissile material / technology / both.
  • Pakistan doesn’t like this,-not-one-bit.
  • For a while, Pakistan also lobbied for similar treaty with US/UK but no success because of the “Dual use” guideline- no sane country in the world, is willing to sell Pakistanis any nuke material or technology.
  • So, Pakistan comes up with a new mind-game cum timepass talk, called “Conditional NPT signature”

Pakistan’s says we are ready to sign NPT, BUT with following condition.

  1. NPT has two classification: nuke weapon countries (tested bombs before 1967), non-nuke weapon countries.
  2. Although we tested first nuke-bomb only in 1998 STILL give us membership in “nuke weapon country” category.

Why does Pak. Want to join NPT?

  1. They’re facing electricity shortage. Want to develop nuclear plants.
  2. Like India, Pakistan wanted exceptional treaty with US and NSG-waiver, without signing the NPT. But that’s unlikely to happen due to “Dual use guideline”. Pakistan is facing nuclear “Apartheid” because of its “tainted” past like Dr. AQ Khan “the nuclear thief”, Sheltering Osama and so on.
  3. So now Pak planning to join NPT. That way Pak can legitimately demand NSG-waiver for buying fissile material and technology.

Visit Mrunal.org/Diplomacy for entire list articles on Diplomacy & International relations (IR) for Mains GS2 paper of UPSC Civil service IAS/IPS Exam.

Mrunal recommends

93 Comments on “[Nuclear Diplomacy] India’s No first use” Nuclear weapon policy vs Pak’s conditional sign to NPT”

  1. Great work ….sir…..

  2. sir please explain shortcoming of current VAT system. How proposed GST address these shortcomings?

      1. @saumitra pandey do you have older notes of mrunal sir related to calculation of WPI calculation, GDP deflator etc?? if u do have please send me my email id is [email protected]

          1. Hi Saumitra! I am searching for Mrunal’s Pipe n cistern article for aptitude but couldn’t got it from anywhere….Even I searched in your aforesaid website of scribed.com but not succeded. Can you help me bro over that?

          2. is there any download link of these notes? how u are downloading in pdf format? thank you

        1. U R WELCOME

          1. @ saumitra pandey thank you

  3. please provide hindi version of your site because google translator does’nt provide exact translation of the site content.

  4. sir ji please write about ongoing EU parliament election and its impact.

    1. sir answer of 1st question is D. None of the above as both statements are wrong
      sunni chose abu bakr and shia chose ali.

    2. yes..Mrunal Sir…If possible plz wirte on EU Election.

  5. your style is impeccable,Sir!

  6. First of all, many many thanks to u sir,…..my question is , why Marshall Islands nation is creating tension with BIG BROTHERS? given that , it,s not claiming compensation.

  7. Great work SIR…..However
    Answer for question no.1 of MCQ should be ‘D’ i.e. neither A nor B. It is because statement A is also incorrect since Shia chose Prophet Muhammad’s son-in-law Ali as Caliph (not abu bakr) and vice versa.

  8. after the death of Prophet(pbuh) Sunni chose Abu Bakr as the Caliph while Shia chose Prophet Muhammad’s son-in-law Ali as Caliph.

  9. Sir, please share a link to download ancient history by RS Sharma NCERT.

    I m not finding it anywhere.

  10. Dear Mrunal Sir,
    “No words”…… what a way to serve the nation. “Helping aspirants without any selfishness”
    God Bless You Sir..

  11. Please provide list of sources for these articles. I didn’t find any of these topics during my preparation. After reading all your current affairs articles if fell that my preparation and list of the sources i refer are very narrow. I feel I am on a wrong track

    1. “The Hindu ,Indian Express ,PIB”

    2. Manjunath: All the topics in this given article are picked from Indian Express and Hindu dated 1 to 7 May. (week1) Further content gathered from respective official sites and google books.

  12. Hey Mrunal, reg the answer for Q.1, the NCERT says that Shias followed the Prophet’s son-in-law Ali. I think this needs to be checked again.
    Thanks!

  13. The following is the relevant part from Chapter 1 of NCERT Medieval History textbook (Pg. 12): Many rulers were patrons of Islam and the ulama – learned theologians and jurists. And like Hinduism, Islam was interpreted in a variety of ways by its followers. There were the Shia Muslims who believed that the Prophet’s son-in-law, Ali, was the legitimate leader of the Muslim community and the Sunni Muslims who accepted the authority of the early leaders (khalifas) of the community, and the succeeding Khalifas. There were other important differences between the various schools of law (Hanafi and Shafi’i mainly in India), and in theology and mystic traditions.

  14. sir, answer for Q1MCQ is Neither A nor B.
    shia muslims chose Ali as caliph and
    sunni muslims chose Abu Bakr as caliph…
    please correct.

  15. sir plz upload your previous articles named ECONOMY FOR NEWBIE it helped me lot in my last attempt in pre exam . so plz re upload that section

    1. they’re outdated, contained some factual errors and their diagrams/images are lost from server. hence removed. Besides many of those topics were again covered in better manner in my recent articles.

      1. OK SIR KOI BAAT NAHI MAINE SARE ARTICLES SE NOTES BANA LIYE HAIN SO NOT MUCH PROBLEM. AND THANKS FOR ALL THE GREAT ARTICLES . MODI SHOULD APPOINT YOU AS EDUCATION MINISTER.

      2. SIR I READ YOUR ARTICLE IN AMAR UJALA SAFALATA MAGEZINE. SIR PLZ POST MORE THAN 1 ARTICLE IN THIS MAGEZINE

        1. hello saumitra..apni email id de sakte ho…kuch baat karni hai..

  16. its another way of serving students mrunal . . congrats . . no words to speak abt ur hardwork for students . .

  17. sir even i want the same article ECONOMY FOR NEWBIE please upload it

  18. GREAT SYNOPSIS…………………………THNKS !!!!!

  19. Q1. Correct statement(s) related to Shia and Sunni.

    Their main difference is: after the death of Prophet, Shia chose Abu Bakr as the Caliph while Sunni chose Prophet Muhammad’s son-in-law Ali as Caliph.
    The Mughal kings were Shia Muslims.
    Both A and B
    Neither A nor B
    Please correct respected Sir…..
    you have written option A is correct i.e Shia chose Abu Bakr as the Caliph while Sunni chose Prophet Muhammad’s son-in-law Ali as Caliph.
    But the answer is shia chooses Prophet Muhammad’s son-in-law Ali as Caliph and sunni chooses Abu Bakr as the Caliph
    so the answer is D. Neither A nor B

    1. @All
      Correction in first MCQ: Shia = Prophet’s Son in law Ali as Caliph. Sunni = Prophet’s companion Abu Bakar as Caliph.

  20. Mrunal Bhai,
    I need a little clarification here. http://www.nuclearsuppliersgroup.org/en/about-us, the official website f NSG says that in 1994 the “Non Proliferation Principle” was taken up. is it the same thing that u mentioned about “Dual Use” in 1992. Pls explain.

  21. Marrakesh treaty!!! really?? even if i read a newspaper 100 times i wouldn’t be able to notice such thing

    1. It has been repeatedly appearing the Hindu for a year now……… may be not in the last few months or so…. but in June (30) and July (4 and 15 last year – 2013) edition of the Hindu…………….. you just have to be vigilant……

    2. It has been repeatedly appearing in the Hindu for a year now……… may be not in the last few months or so…. but in June (30) and July (4 and 15 last year – 2013) edition of the Hindu…………….. you just have to be vigilant……

      1. @mrunal @rahul thank you guys…now i know that the first thing i need to do is change the newspaper i have been reading

  22. Sunnis believe that Abu Bakr, the father of Muhammad’s wife Aisha, was Muhammad’s rightful successor and that the method of choosing or electing leaders (Shura) endorsed by the Quran
    Shias believe that Muhammad divinely ordained his cousin and son-in-law Ali
    sunni=abu bakr and shia= ali ( as per Wikipedia claim)
    Mock question No. 1 answer claims otherwise. need clarification

  23. any one can tell me ….can read indian express …becoz i liked …it can help or not ?

  24. Is India a member of ICC and by the whats d procedure to select judges for these institutions of ICC & ICJ??

  25. Sir please could you write an article on Thailand crises and Ukraine crises ?If with be of real help if you could write it ASAP..
    Thanks.

  26. Sir please could you write an article on Thailand crises and Ukraine crises ?It would be of real help if you could write it ASAP..
    Thanks.

  27. Simply great Sir.

  28. Thank you. Wasn’t OPCW awarded the nobel peace prize in 2013, and not 2014?

  29. hai guys I want to take coaching.please tell me best institutes in bangalore. thanking you in advance.

    1. byju classes

    2. jts institute in bangalore
      ask ther for demo lecture and take advice from ohter students who r already attendin those classes
      r u givin in 2015?
      whats ur optional
      i think first u complete ur core sylabus den only join for doubts lecture
      take care

      1. thank you guys what about Achievers ias institute?ya I want to give an attempt in 2015.my opt is philosophy.

        1. hi bhavya first u complete ur core sylabus den go for coaching
          after completing u feel u need coaching den only go for it otherwise join only test series
          after completing core sylabus start writing practise
          my optional is eco
          my id is [email protected]

  30. i want 2 read previous articles of dec,jan, feb.m not able to find these.any one plz help.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *