[Diplomacy] Arab Spring : Reasons and Future by Om Kasera

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  1. Introduction
  2. The Democratic Uprising
  3. Monarchies
  4. Israel
  5. Final conclusions

Introduction

The massive popular movement in Middle East region, known as “Arab Spring”, is as significant as the fall of Berlin Wall.
The common denominator is that The entire region seeks.

  1. Transformation of ruling political structures and processes.
  2. Fundamental reforms in governance.
  3. Social equity and emancipation of poor classes.
  4. Desire for better opportunities in education, development and employment.

The Democratic Uprising

It started in Tunisia with a policewoman slapping a food vendor, who immolated himself later.
It led to the unprecedented movement. The reactions followed in Yemen, Syria, Egypt, Libya and Baherin.Mubarak Fled from Egypt. Fighters in Libya outsted the Gaddafi’s regime. Yemen and Syria (sallah and Assad) are also facing protests, but they’re using force till now for maintaining the situation.
Baherin has introduced large-scale reforms to contain the protest.
Roots are more social in Tunisia, Libya and Baherin while political, economical and sectarian in Syria, Yemen and Egypt.

Monarchies

  • Only Baherin has monarchy rest are republics.
  • Great anxiety in other monarchies in Saudi Arabia and Jordan
  • Saudi Arabia is the largest oil exporter and the custodian of Mecca and Medina
  • Saudi has recently granted voting rights to women
  • Saudi is supporting Baharain (Sunni)
  • Iran is supporting Syria and major population of Bahrain (which is Shia population)
  • Shia-Sunni rivalary and Western interference to protect energy security
  • This democratic uprising led by educated, but unemployed youth, which uses social networking sites and technology to coordinate their protests and create awareness .

Israel

  • The aftermath can be felt with warning of US supported Mubarak  regime and widespread protests against Israel and attack on Israel embassy in Egypt.
  • Israel is also left alone in UN Gen assembly when Palestine bidded for Statehood
  • Samuel Huntington “theories of clashes of civilisations”

Final conclusions

  • The area will remain destabilised over a long period.
  • Long disputes over political structures and processes.
  • The chances of democracy are dim
  • future of transitional Government = uncertain
  • possibility of polarisation of religious conservatism
  • Anti-US and anti-West outlook in the region.
  • Shia-Sunni rivalry will aggrevate
  • Role of Internet and social networking site will be significant.
  • It will create a ripple that will force the autocratic regimes to introduce reforms.
  • The government will have to focus on better governance, more social, political and economic development.

Credit

This article is entirely written by the infinitely awesome Om Kasera (AIR 17 / CSE 2011)

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2 Comments on “[Diplomacy] Arab Spring : Reasons and Future by Om Kasera”

  1. Nice article with simple explanation.

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