UPSC had conducted Civil service and Forest service (combined) preliminary exam aka CSAT-2015, on 23th August 2014. Here are the scanned copies of Booklet no.”B” for both paper 1 (GS) and Paper 2 (Aptitude):
Detailed Analysis and Topicwise Answerkeys with explanations (for all sets), coming soon.
- You’re most welcome to provide your inputs, answers, observation, analysis and experience in the comments below.
- If you want to discuss then discuss MCQs, (and not cut-offs.) Everyone who had prepared sincerely, and did not risk too much negative marking, he/she has a fair chance of clearing prelims.
- Internet user sample size too short to make any predictions. So don’t lose blood pressure, if Mr.X, Y or Z says he ticked more MCQs than you.
Courtesy: Mr. Brijesh D.Patel from SPIPA, Ahmedabad for providing the question papers.
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general category
marks varying from 100 -112(112 -sankar ias,100 from vajiram)
any chance…
Mrunal sir ki jai ho
hello everyone ,
would like to know if anyone has geography as an optional and from where to take coaching ? i am planning to get myself enrolled at alok ranjan’s . so if anyone has gone through the same classes , please share some experience and suggestions are always welcome.. thank you
I have taken Zoology as optional. Please suggest some thing about it. About notes, strategy.
Is thre ny1 who’s optional subjct is philosophy….
What is answer for question why very less or no tropical cyclones in south atlantic and south east pacific ocean ?
A: low sea surface temperatures.
EXP: because at that particular areas there are no warm currents.
going through the question papers of 2013, 14 and 15 Prelims,
Here’s my two cents about the cut-off.
2013 was 241
Four types of score trends were conspicuous among people who cleared prelims,
1. Good in GS(above 120) and CSAT(above 150)
2. Moderate in GS(above 90) and Good in CSAT(above 150)
3. Kinda Weak in GS(above 70) and Extremely Good in CSAT(above 180)
4. Moderate in GS(above 100-120) and Moderate in CSAT(120-150)
Lets eliminate csat scores and try to arrive at an average of the above four categories,
Assuming approximately 7000 students made it to mains,
Gauging the difficulty of the paper,
1.A score of above 120 in GS requiredComplete basic and analytical knowledge of static part(through with all ncerts) and factual knowledge of dynamic part.
a. 150 people out of top 500 ranks from cse 2012.
b. Senior Players approx 850 who couldnt make it to interview or final list of 2012.
c. 1000 new serious candidates who could have worked hard for one complete year.
That would be around 2000 candidates with a score of above 120.
2. remaining 5000 candidates would mostly be the semi-serious type or who couldnt prepare well enough for any reason. Starting from 120 marks and Assuming a loss of one mark for every 100 candidates, Theoretically the cut off should be 70 marks for GS. But in reality its a little higher and happens so due to the difficulty level. The difficulty level can be assessed by number of questions that can be solved directly from the static part, because most of the new candidates/semi serious types tend to read TMH or any factual notes. The analytical power which can derived from dedicated study of ncert’s will be lacking in them.
3. The number of questions which can be solved from TMH or any such types range between 40 to 50 for 2013. Assuming on an average they got 45 correct, around 5 to 10 guesses, and remaining wrong(most of the new candidates tend to attend atleast 85 to 90 questions contributing to negative marking). There the best case can be 110 and the worst case can be around 80ish type. Therefore around 80 would have been the cut-off if there was no csat.
Corollary: The cut-off for only GS 1 will always be around 20 marks less than marks obtained by semi serious candidates after solving questions which are direct/easy/factual in nature.
Similar trend can be observed in 2014, the number of questions which could be solved easily went down from 40 – 50 to 30 to 40. The difficulty level of CSAT was higher than 2013, therefore 120ish can be the average csat score of the candidates who cleared prelims,
Cut off was 206, removing 120 from it, Theoretically the GS cut off should have been 86, but instead it would have gone still lower by virtue of the above mentioned corollary. The cut-off would have been any where between 60 to 70.
Now lets come back to 2015,
1. On an Average, Number of Questions Serious candidates could solve easily (150 from from cse 2014, 850 from seniors and 1000 from new serious types) were,
1.Jan Dhan, 2.Fin Comm, 3.Fortaleza 4.trop cyclone 5. east and west states 6. DPSP 7. IIP
8.NIF 9.nitro ferti 10.iucn and cites 11. frp 12. equatorial cc 13. pilgrimage 14. rowlatt 15. ebola 16. fly ash 17. dugong 18. economic critics 19. global economic prospects 20. slr 21. nanotech 22. agro produce 23.national aqua animal 24. Cong soc party 25. RS 26. goi 1919 act 27. cpi iw 28. icecube 29.ioa 30.nfc 31.golan 32. rupee conv 33. godavari 34.Joint Sit 35. mang, everG and decid forest 36. buddha 37. montreal 38. rio+20 39.medieval state40. niti 41. PM exec power 42. goldilock 43. salt law 44. harihara 45. cong pres 46.Green climate fund 47. ISRO 48. cabinet mission 49.namdhapa 50. amnesty 51. rock cut elephant 52. fuedal 53. bio carbon 54. east asia 55. steel import 56. schedules 57.budget 58. custodian 59. mekong ganga 60. basel iii 61. westerlies 62. IORARC 63. swadeshi 64. meghalaya 65. tides 66.irs 67. wet everG 68. Indaarc 69. forest carb part 70.odia 71. birdlife 72. teak 73. beijing 74.equatorial 75. leg council 76. Fund Duty 78. ecosystem 79. panchayati 80.monetary policy 81. inflation 82.npt 83. welfare state 84. capt aug 85.Parl system 86.H1N1 87.biotoilet 88.liquidity 89.fuel cell 90.seed village 91. gi 92. deficit 93.ireda
Assuming an average overall correctness of 70%, that is 65 questions and 40%(28) wrong.
The last score of the above 2000 students would be 111.52
2. for the remaining 5000 students lets apply the marks of easy questions minus 20.
1. Jan Dhan 2.Fin Comm 3.trop cyc 4. east and west 5. DPSP 6.IIP 7. Nitro 8. iucn 9. rowlatt 10. ebola 11. slr 12. nanotech 13.agro produce 14.natl aqua animal 15. Cong soc party 16. RS 17. goi 1919 act 18.nfc 19. rupee conv 20. godavari 21.Joint Sit 22. mang, everG and decid forest 23. buddha 24. montreal 25. rio+20 26. niti 27. PM exec power 28. salt law 29. harihara 30. cong pres 31.Green climate fund 32. ISRO 33. cabinet mission 34. amnesty 35. rock cut elephant 36. fuedal 37. steel import 38. schedules 39.budget 40. custodian 41. westerlies 42. swadeshi 43. meghalaya 44. tides 45.irs 46. wet everG 47.odia 48. teak 49.equatorial 50. leg council 51. Fund Duty 52. ecosystem 53. panchayati 54.monetary policy 55. inflation 56.npt 57. welfare state 58. capt aug 59.Parl system 60.H1N1 61.biotoilet 62.liquidity 63.fuel cell 64. gi 65. deficit
Assuming 70% accuracy of 65 Q,
a.91 marks – 20 marks(corollary) = 71 marks or
b.91marks – 30% wrong = 78.6
Hi Dear,
Good analysis….You might be correct..but there is no linear relation..but what is ur conclusion
That is a brilliant analysis! You might not realize but that gives a sense of hope to many aspirants. I wish that all serious candidates make it through prelims, because many a times even the most promising ones are disqualified owing their failure to a mark or two. Even Rank 1 this year wouldn’t have made it with only 76 in GS if there would’ve been no Paper 2.
So, all the 70-80 scorers you are still in the battle. Give it your best shot.
:)
:) :)
Its a brilliant effort. I also went through the last year paper. As compared to 93 questions which serious candidates would have attempted, this number would have been 80 last year. The low cutoff last year was not only attributed to the lengthy CSAT,but also to more difficult GS. so if you take average score of CSAT to be 120 last year, the the average GS score of a qualifying candidate would be (205-120)=85. Hence I don’t think this time its going to be lower than 85, especially keeping in mind a number of GS strong candidate could not qualify due to CSAT.
Looks very logical …
EXCEPTIONAL ANALYSIS !!!!!! EXCELLENT BRO
good work dear,really appriciating.best of luck
splendid analysis…
r u mad or what? jitna time is pe waste kiya utna to kuch padh leta bhai.. vese fir bhi thanx.. ;)
Its not Wasting of time..It is only help.
Thanx for taking this much effort..
If you do stud hard , you do not need to forcast cut off
two factor most important in your analysis are missing:
1) total seat in 2015 is decrease
2) total serious candidate increase (many non serious/ csat dominant candidate had not appeared, many new comer had not write pre this time, (three of my friend) )
also 2011 candidate got extra chance .
moral: don’t waste time on cutoff as guided by mrunal guruji. lets all prepare for mains, at some point of time it will be fruitfull …. all the best to you all for mains preparation, lets give our best…
Now I am waiting for 6 sigma analysis by considering your variables and parameters, i expect there would be someone now using statistics to converge to final solution.
Oh but nice effort feel comfortable for mains.
hhhaaaahaa!!
Brilliant analysis. Your last part is very valid. But i think the analysis should be compared with the same ‘easy question approach’ for all the 3 years. Because in this analysis the derivation method (for 2013, 2014) is different from the prediction method (for 2015).
As you assumed 65Q were easy in 2015. How many such questions were easy in 2013 and 2014. — This would definitely helps in predicting cut off with 5% error.
Valid Points are
1) distribution of 7000 people for mains (2000 strong, 1000 serious, 4000 above average)
2) ~85 Q were attempted by this above average candidates
3) ~ 65 Q easy questions
4) error rate of 24Q to 36Q
5) Least score prediction of 55Q-60Q for the 2000th candidate[110-120]
6) 100 candidates for every 1% (holds true till 4000 candidate) [90-100]
(May be we should take 300 candidates for every 1% till 4500th [85-95 ???]
candidate and 500 candidates for every 1% till 7000th ) [80-85???]
Facts to be included:
There are candidates who missed 2013 , 2014 due to the fact that they cant perform well in Paper 2 but get good score in paper 1 — This types will increase the GS cut off
More analysis required for:
1) how many easy CSAT questions for backing up 150marks in 2013 and 120 marks in 2014 is required to agree this baseline.
General Observation: & Request to all other members:
Don’t compare Ira ‘s GS score of 76 because there may be a chance that she entered the mains bus through reservation from otherwise abled ticket. (Her Mains & Interview score are extraordinary though even for open competition)
Regardless of whether one agrees with your conclusion or not, your approach is definitely worthy of praise. All assumptions look logical. Very good work.
Completely rubbish analysis with loads on assumptions. Where did you get the number of people who are serious, semi serious, there numbers. I will mark this post so that you can be set in place when results come in Oct. Assuming 70-80 Cut Off is criminal and mocking with the feelings of many aspirant. Have you seen any serious aspirant with scores less than 80 in general category. Will everyone clear or what. Don’t fall to this stupid post. I can understand if someone says cut off will be 95 or 110 but saying 70-80 is plain stupid
please check last year 2014 toppers prelims marks…….miss ira shinghal’s interview to amar ujala newspaper’s magazine “SAFALTA”……. prelims marks are 76 and 129
Everybody is quoting her marks but she herself said that she never prepared for Prelims as being a CAT exam performer, she knew she would do well in Paper 2. Her suggestion was if I was giving in 2015, I would have studied for Paper 1 and scored higher. Watch her video on youtube. Don’t try to use exceptions for the case. It may lead to big failures.
With Paper 2 gone, everybody studied for Paper 1 and covered all topics which they usually left. And on top of that Paper was on the easier side. Those predicting cut off in 70-80s are fooling themselves and fooling everyone. Every chunnu munnu has scored more than 80. It is a cut off. Some people will be cut off. Those who are getting 90+ should start preparing as there are 4-5 doubtful questions and their marks may jump. But in real terms the cut off would be between 105-110
No doubt u r using rough words 4 those who score less but as per me u have practical understanding
Regarding cut off i development a thinking that where there is negative marking it will be near 50%
and 4 non negative marking it will be 60%
conditions applied no illegal means and no below level paper (it seam easy this time which is not in real sense truth )
@ordinary mortal:- That was bad on my part to use a inappropriate word chunnu munnu. However I still maintain that this analysis was the biggest crap I have ever seen. It was criminal to play with the feeling of so many aspirants. Many friends got actually very hopeful after seeing this and now I know they are shattered. The cut off is anywhere between 100-105 and 78 prediction in front of it can be as wrong an analysis that anyone can think off. I was really angry at this post and that is why have come back specially to reply on this
See buddy did the cut off go at 78 or 80. It surely is between 100 to 105. Now what to say about the analysis. Sorry to use the harsh word but it is crap analysis. This is the most competitive exam on the planet (Baring some chinese exam) and expect very tough competition. Now thing of the many who would have believed this and would have felt, clearing Prelims is easy, I am good and now would be shattered.
Thanks for your analysis.
That helps many.
a quick question: can one change optional subject from what they opted while filling prelims form?
Sadly no
How should prepare for Geography optional
Please provide some guidance for Geography optional
I see lot of people guessing cut-offs by just matching keys and analyzing scores posted,
let me clarify you all, Last year(2014) I missed prelims by 1 marks no matter I lost hope early to qualify
when I see exaggerated & inflated cut-off predictions by many (235-240), so really do not believe these
forecasting completely. They only consider marks of candidates who r regular visitor of institutes plus some from
other sources like media, internet etc. what about the rest of population!! Their technique of sampling is not correct.
Many of us will get only discouragement by seeing inflated predictions of scores which is meaningless and too
early too predict. This year all will be a astonished, when result will be out…..we will found many candidates claiming
115+ will be out of the list while few honest after having honestly screened their paper getting around 95-100 will be
in the list of mains’ Why? becoz they have done it honestly and they know what is wrong and right. There are many
versions of solutions in market but I bet every one will differ from original keys from upsc by at least 5-7 questions
and that will make the difference in final list.
While talking of cut-off; 50% (may be less) for general is
enough to qualify. If from 2011-2014 , CSAT would have not being in the picture then cut-off will not be
more than 45%. Majority of people had qualified in prelims due to CSAT those days. But there will be a
close fight even for 0.33 marks, hence even a unanswered question will carry more weight over wrong
answer this time.
I too missed my 2014 pre by 2 marks.But had already given up hope right after those inflated predictions of 230 or 235 after PT.Even if I wud have cleared PT I wud have surely lost in mains coz of huge dillemma.Guys get back to study.
i think if anyones marks 95 to 105 for general n obc they must preparetion for mains
conclusion of all doubts CUTOFF GEN 90 OBC 85-90 SC LESS THAN 80
sir when are u cmng with detailed stratergy for mains 2015
Nice analysis Mr. Viku..thank you. .it gives us a sense of hope and immense clarity. .
sir…eagerly waiting for your next post
It’s my humble request that please provide a band till when you will come with detail analysis of preliminary papers and mains strategy because everyday I scroll through your website ending up with nothing.
hi mrunal sir,
I am a engineering graduate and working as software eng. I am not able to decide which subject should i take for mains as my optional?
Please help.
Hello Everyone,
Please tell me….as a part of GS mains preparation, shall we read all the 15 2nd ARC Reports or few selected ones…….
Thanks In Advance
dont read all
you dont have time!
just read basics that correspond to syllabi
it will hardly amount to 10-15 pages in each report
:)
Any hope??
Yes bro, start mains prep asap.
Sorry..Try for next year.
Anyone with GEOLOGY optional??
we can discuss paper 2 section A
yes i am
The answer for Equatorial Counter Current is Rotation of Earth.
Search for keywords like Geostrophic and Sverdrup Theory in the below link.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equatorial_Counter_Current
Also search on google for a book named
Encyclopedia of Global Warming and Climate Change, Second Edition
by S. George Philander
sorry i m not agree with u there . I think its convergence of two equatorial currents. Because south and north equatorial currents converges near equator , there is a lot of water collected in a small area . then that water flow in direction opposite to two equatorial currents because of difference in water level (high level at west and low level in east)
yes ans will be convergence of two equitorial currents
As stated by the Indian Constitution, the function of the Supreme Court of India is that of a custodian of the Constitution.
bhai converge nahi hoti counter current ma diverge hoti ha at west of ocean……
its converge thats why more water in less space …. if its diverging than there is enough space for water to flow through.. check logically
Who is the custodian of constitution?
Amazed to see a discussion on those two options which are not correct at all. Answer is ‘belt of calm’. Counter current follows doldrums. No belt of calm No eastward movement.
Both currents never converge its Divergence that piles up the water in western part and eastward movement implies rotation of the earth.. so option 2 is eliminated.
so, does rotation of earth affect only equatorial counter current? what about other objects like continents?does this mean wagner was correct? I thought rotation created coriolis effect which is supposed to be zero at equator.
yes, this question is given with same options in book
“Vasthunisht Samanya Adhyayan 4 Upsc”
By Ksg
page no.118 check in google.
Mrunal sir, pls post ur analysis abt the xam.
suggestions are welcomed to guide hw to prepare for psycology for mains 2015,,,belong to engineering background so not very much aware of do’s n donts for pyschology,,,,,,, Please guide .
m from psychology optional….smarak swain is enough for paper 2…for paper 1…Robert A. Baron…go through previous year questions and during reading these 2 books….thought generation is the most important thing… try to create examples since a lot of case studies type of questions will come
respected sir, when will u give the detailed analysis of prelims 2015. we are eagerly waiting for your next articles.
I’m getting 200 out of 200 in GS I. Idont think I have any chances now. I’m shattered! Will someone please love me? I have a very low self esteem.
why did you not attempted one question two times, perhaps could get extra marks for over intelligence, now now more remorse plzzzzzz.
jerk! how did you even qualify for writing the exam? stop spamming this forum.
kalamkari question reference -the hindu(21st july,page 20) :)
NIOS art and culture provided by mrunal.
mrunal bhai when you will release the key
cut off bhad mein gaya. start preparing for mains . pass huva toh is saal kam mein ayega varna agala saal kam ayega
anyone have idea about tropical westerlies in between ITCZ . one of the question related to westerlies in PRE 2015.